The 2018 awards season welcomes its first major televised event this Sunday with the 75th Annual Golden Globes. The Globes may not be the most prestigious awards show, but it is one of the most interesting to follow thanks to the often unpredictable whims of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). For starters, it’s one of the few shows that recognizes work in both Television and Film as opposed to the Emmys and The Academy Awards that dedicate themselves to only one medium. It also takes the unique approach of distinguishing between comedy and drama categories in film. And of course, let’s not forget that it’s the show where you get to see a whole room of celebrities get progressively wasted over the course of three hours.
Beyond the awards themselves, this year’s event carries the added intrigue of being one of the first major industry outings since #MeToo and The Silence Breakers shook Hollywood to its core and birthed the Time’s Up initiative against harassment at the start of this year. Many women are expected to wear black and Time’s Up pins as a sign of protest and/or solidarity with the movement. It also adds a lot of pressure to the ceremony itself and host Seth Meyers as many wonder how Hollywood will address the masturbating elephant in the room.
As interesting as that aspect will be, part of the fun in shows like this is trying to guess who will walk away victorious and a brighter star than when they walked in. Before the Globes kickoff on Sunday, let’s have some fun and predict who walks away with those big gold statues!
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
- Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies”
- Ann Dowd, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
- Chrissy Metz, “This is Us”
- Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Wizard of Lies”
- Shailene Woodley, “Big Little Lies”
Who should win: Michelle Pfeiffer
Who will win: Ann Dowd
Pfeiffer was the best part in so many things last year that I’d love to see her get recognized for something, but Dowd won the Emmy. You better believe she’s taking it again here.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
- Alfred Molina, “Feud”
- Alexander Skarsgard, “Big Little Lies”
- David Thewlis, “Fargo”
- David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
- Christian Slater, “Mr. Robot”
Who should win: David Thewlis
Who will win: David Thewlis
Of this bunch, Thewlis is the only one who really brings something different to the table.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
- Jessica Biel, “The Sinner”
- Nicole Kidman, “Big Little Lies”
- Jessica Lange, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
- Susan Sarandon, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
- Reese Witherspoon, “Big Little Lies”
Who should win: Jessica Lange
Who will win: Jessica Biel
Here me out. There are two nominees from the same show on this list. Kidman or Witherspoon probably has the edge, but I wager they will cancel each other out. Same goes for Sarandon and Lange, which is ridiculous because when Jessica Lange gives you this, you give her the Globe, dammit:
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
- Robert De Niro, “The Wizard of Lies”
- Jude Law, “The Young Pope”
- Kyle MacLachlan, “Twin Peaks”
- Ewan McGregor, “Fargo”
- Geoffrey Rush, “Genius”
Who should win: Kyle MacLachlan
Who will win: Jude Law
We all know that if there’s any guy who did WEIRD work on the WEIRD show most deserving of this award, it’s Kyle MacLachlan. However, I think he’s losing to the other odd show from this past year with the arguably bigger prestige name behind it (sorry Showtime). If there was ever a series that just felt tailor-made for the HFPA to drool over, it’s The Young Pope. Remember how confused everyone was when that kangaroo showed up? Well, that’s how we’re all going to feel on Monday after Jude Law inexplicably wins.
Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
- “Big Little Lies”
- “Feud: Bette and Joan”
- “The Sinner”
- “Top of the Lake: China Girl”
Who should win: Big Little Lies
Who will win: Big Little Lies
Nicole, Reese, and Shailene will handily keep their golden gravy train rolling come Sunday.
Best performance by an Actress in a TV series – Musical or Comedy
- Pamela Adlon, “Better Things”
- Alison Brie, “Glow”
- Issa Rae, “Insecure”
- Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
- Frankie Shaw, “SMILF”
Who should win: Issa Rae
Who will win: Rachel Brosnahan
There are two certainties in this world when it comes to the Golden Globes: 1) The Hollywood Foreign Press will bend over backwards to get movie stars at their ceremony regardless of how random the film is (*cough* The Tourist *cough*), and 2) They looooooovves their ingenues. As much as I want to see the HFPA spread the love with some more diverse winners, Rachel Brosnahan was THE breakout performance last year. The HFPA has been building a track record as of late by giving this award to up-and-coming actresses who deserve to be on your radars like Gina Rodriguez and Rachel Bloom… now it’s Brosnahan’s turn.
Best performance by an Actor in a TV series – Musical or Comedy
- Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
- Aziz Ansari “Master of None”
- Kevin Bacon, “I Love Dick”
- William H. Macy, “Shameless”
- Eric McCormack, “Will and Grace”
Who should win: Anthony Anderson
Who will win: Aziz Ansari
Both guys put in great work last year, so I’d be happy to see either get recognized. My hunch is that Aziz’s work might appeal a little more to the HFPA’s sensibilities, though.
Best TV series – Musical or Comedy
- “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
- “Master of None”
- “Will & Grace”
Who should win: Master of None
Who will win: Will & Grace
Does Will & Grace deserve the Globe for the work they’ve put forward this year? Hardly. Does the comeback of a groundbreaking network show and past Golden Globes darling scream PICK ME in a category filled with premium cable and streaming shows? You betcha.
Best performance by an Actor in a TV Series – Drama
- Sterling K. Brown, “This is Us”
- Freddie Highmore, “The Good Doctor”
- Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
- Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”
- Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Who should win: Bob Odenkirk
Who will win: Sterling K Brown
If the world wants to keep praising Sterling K. Brown, I’m here for it. The guy gives A+ work every time he shows up onscreen, but I must make a plea for good ol’ Bobby O. Better Caul Saul has become the Frasier to Breaking Bad’s Cheers at this point. The man continues to get nods year after year and never wins a freaking award. It’s time to throw some love his way.
Best performance by Actress in a TV series – Drama
- Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”
- Claire Foy, “The Crown”
- Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Deuce”
- Katherine Langford, “13 Reasons Why”
- Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Who should win: Elizabeth Moss
Who will win: Elizabeth Moss
Blessed be the fruit that gives Elizabeth Moss another little trophy.
Best TV series – Drama
- “The Crown”
- “Game of Thrones”
- “The Handmaid’s Tale”
- “Stranger Things”
- “This Is Us”
Who should win: The Handmaid’s Tale
Who will win: Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale is the most “important” show on this lis,t but Game of Thrones checks every bucket these shows aim to hit. It has the decadent, regal costumes of The Crown, the gargantuan popularity of Stranger Things, the emotional highs and lows of This is Us and the “Jeez, this got bleak,” moments of The Handmaid’s Tale. Check, check, check and check. Plus, we now know it’s not coming back until 2019 so Thrones gets the absentee love as well.
Best Animated Film
- “The Boss Baby”
- “The Breadwinner”
- “Loving Vincent”
Who should win: Coco
Who will win: Coco
This isn’t even a contest. I may have struggled to love Coco, but the world embraced this film like Miguel’s family finally embraced his dream to become a musician. The HFPA are a bunch of “poco locos” if this doesn’t win.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
- “A Fantastic Woman”
- “First They Killed My Father”
- “In the Fade”
- “The Square”
Who should win: Eh…
Who will win: The Square, I guess?
I’ve got no dog in this fight. A Fantastic Woman seems sweet and I’d be okay to see it win here, but I’ll say they give it to the bonkers movie where Elizabeth Moss owns a pet chimpanzee for some reason.
Best Screenplay in a Motion Picture
- Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water”
- Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
- Liz Hannah, Josh Singer, “The Post”
- Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game”
Who should win: Molly’s Game
Who will win: Lady Bird
Chastain won’t win in the acting category because it’s too stacked, and Lady Bird won’t win Best Picture (Drama) because it’s too idiosyncratic despite the universal themes. So this one becomes a toss up for me. Do they give the award about writing to the guy who’s famous for writing lots of words, or do they give it to the woman who got shutout in the directing category — because reasons —and make this her consolation prize? My gut tells me this is Gerwig’s to lose.
Best Original Score in a Motion Picture
- Carter Burwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Alexander Desplat, “The Shape of Water”
- Jonny Greenwood, “Phantom Thread”
- John Williams, “The Post”
- Han Zimmer, “Dunkirk”
Who should win: The Shape of Water
Who will win: Dunkirk
Tick. Tick. Tick. Tick… that’s the sound of time slowly slipping by until Han Zimmer gets his hands on this award.
Best Original Song in a Motion Picture
- Home, “Ferdinand”
- Mighty River, “Mudbound”
- Remember Me, “Coco”
- The Star, “The Star”
- This is Me, “The Greatest Showman”
Who should win: The Greatest Showman
Who will win: The Greatest Showman
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
- Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
- Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”
- Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
- Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
- Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who should win: Willem Dafoe
Who will win: Willem Dafoe
The consensus seems to be around Dafoe, so I’d be shocked if he didn’t walk away with this one.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
- Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
- Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
- Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
- Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
- Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Who should win: Laurie Metcalf
Who will win: Laurie Metcalf
I could see the HFPA surprising us on this one and giving it to Chau for her turn in Downsizing since it depicts a performance most audiences are not used to seeing, but let’s be honest, this is really a race between Janney and Metcalf. Of the two, I think Janney gave a little bit more. That car scene broke me…
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
- Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
- Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver”
- James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
- Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”
- Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Who should win: James Franco
Who will win: Daniel Kaluuya
Frankly, I don’t think any of these guys will get the nomination come Oscar time, which is a shame because some of them really do deserve it. It’s one of the few times I thank the Golden Globes for distinguishing between Drama and Comedy. My fervent hope is that Franco walks away with this because his turn as Tommy Wiseau is one of the most interesting and imitable performances of the year; he really runs the gamut emotionally. However, I think the understated work Kaluuya brings to his role in Get Out will win in the end. Sunken place be damned.
- Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
- Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
- Ridley Scott, “All The Money in the World”
- Steven Spielberg, “The Post”
Who should win: Ridley Scott
Who will win: Steven Spielberg
This one feels incredibly tricky to call. First thing, a big BOO for the lack of female directors in this category. Second, both of the directors I picked pulled off some insane feats in 2017. Spielberg announced that he would be making The Post in March while he was still hard at work on Disney’s Ready Player One, got huge names attached, filmed it over the summer, and somehow got it out in time for awards season.
Scott was equally nuts, maybe moreso. The man filmed an entire movie, promoted it in theaters, then called an audible because one actor turned out to be human garbage, recast him with Christopher Plummer thanks to the help Patty Jenkins AFTER the movie was already finished, reshot key scenes in 9 days for something that should have taken 23 or 24, and only pushed the release date for his movie back by 1 week. Allow me to reiterate… THAT. IS. INSANE.
I’d give Scott the award for simply recasting Spacey, but the gumption to take it one step further and maintain your release window deserves some kind of recognition. No matter what I want, though, I don’t think the HFPA will be able to say no to Spielberg.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
- Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
- Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
- Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
- Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”
- Helen Mirren, “The Leisure Seeker”
Who should win (but can’t): Tiffany Haddish
Who will win: Saoirse Ronan
The lack of Tiffany Haddish in this category is downright criminal, but she’s already winning at life so screw the HFPA, I guess. Critics adored Lady Bird, so methinks Saoirse’s about to take flight.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
- Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
- Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
- Tom Hanks, “The Post”
- Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
- Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Who should win: Timothée Chalamet
Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Let’s try to dissect this one. Oldman is great in Darkest Hour, but if we’re being honest, 50% of that performance was the prosthetics. Denzel was good as always, but it’s still too hard to separate him from the characters he plays. Again, haven’t seen The Post, but I hear Hanks is good in it. That just leaves Chalamet and Day-Lewis.
Before Day-Lewis got involved, I would have said this category was a lock for Chalamet. He gives one of the most moving performances of the year in Call Me By Your Name and is the most deserving of the win; however, we can’t forget the little x-factor that is Day-Lewis’ looming retirement from acting. Since the announcement, many are predicting that his role in P.T. Anderson’s Phantom Thread may be one of his last performances ever. If that’s true, that instantly turns this awards season into farewell tour of sorts. If the world is really about to lose one of its greatest living actors, I think the HFPA will feel pressed to send him off into the sunset with gold in hand. Chalamet will have more opportunities anyway.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
- Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
- Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
- Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Meryl Streep, “The Post”
- Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World”
Who should win:
Who will win: Let’s say Francis McDormand.
All of these women give exquisite performances but I’m giving this one to McDormand. Hers is the one that I think really evokes the most out of viewers in an otherwise conflicting film.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
- “The Disaster Artist”
- “Get Out”
- “The Greatest Showman”
- “I, Tonya”
- “Lady Bird”
Who should win: The Greatest Showman
Who will win: Get Out
With all the controversy about Get Out being nominated in the “Musical or Comedy” category, I expect that it will walk away with the award just to keep people satiated. Make no mistake, it deserves this win too. I just prefer to see another film get recognized here since Get Out is practically locked in as a top 3 frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar. Let this award go to something a little more in-line with the “Musical or Comedy” category in Showman.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
- “Call Me by Your Name”
- “The Post”
- “The Shape of Water”
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who should win: The Post
Who will win: The Post
I’ve yet to see The Post since it hasn’t gotten a wide release yet, but I have seen every other movie on this list. While they each have winnable merits, they each lack something that I think makes them the standout winner. Call Me By Your Name is a thoughtful, seductive film about the love yearned, but it doesn’t register for across audiences. Dunkirk gets the Nolan fanboys and represents a massive technical achievement, but it doesn’t have much else going on. The Shape of Water is like the one jazz band that shows up to a pop-rock concert—you know it’s there for good reason, but you can’t help but feel a little odd seeing it there. The response to Three Billboards is too mixed. That just leaves The Post, a somewhat standard Oscar-baity movie about a historical event that features two of the world’s most celebrated actors, is directed by one of the most influential directors of all time, and tackles some pretty timely topics about journalistic integrity and women overcoming the expectations set before them. I think The Post is walking away with this one no matter how you look at it.